Forthcoming U.S recession

Recession (n): A significant decline in the economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months.

The Indian economy has been largely dependent on the U.S markets in the recent past. A recession in the U.S can mean a grave problem to the Indian government along with its private players. The so fortunate I.T consulting can be driven to naked oblivion.

No doubt, Asia is a big market but its size is no match to the U.S behemoth in India's case. There has been as many as seven recessions in the U.S economy from 1965 to 2005. So are there any innovative methods to forecast the recession in advance so that alteration in business policies and shift in market strategies can be implemented to nullify the impact as much as possible. The answer is an emphatic "Yes".

The model developed for this purpose is called ILI (Index of leading indicators).It consists of the following factors:

1) Number of orders received by manufacturers of consumer goods.

2) Number of orders received by manufacturers of capital goods excluding defence requirements: Defence costs remain independent of recession.

3) Housing property reselling and leases

4) S&P 500 Index.

5) Inversion of the yield curve: This happens when the returns on a short term basis exceeds returns on a long-term basis.

6) Consumer Sentiments

The GDP of the U.S has shown a 3.6% rise in the second quarter as opposed to 0.6% in the first. The power sectors are doing well. The surging oil prices has done its fair bit in ameliorating the situation. Lat but not the least, the Federal Reserve has made the cut by 50 basis points as opposed to market forecast of 25. It shows the U.S is keen to avert any recession in near future.

The Reason

"Some of us find a reason good enough to live our lives and a few find one impeccable enough to define their lives."

A imminent juncture usually has its antecedents in an emotive sphere. Delaying the very cause for even a iota of alteration is a natural human response to avoid any sort of predicament. Born into this world of bondage its has become quite inveterate to see things as the way they are.

One night, staring askance at his reflection on the window glass, Ralph was having the same line of thoughts. Simultaneously, he was disapproving the same with a bit of ambivalence. It was around 2 a.m but his eyes were still wide open. They were staring back at him from the  inside of the glass. It had been a week since he had realized that something was really amiss. His arduous efforts at work had left him with very little time for introspection. He was missing the engineering life definitely but there were a few more additions to it. He had a job, of course with a salary then independence and all its appurtenances. Then suddenly the bolt stuck like lightning. It was her, he was missing so much. It had been almost six months since he had talked to her on a genuine sense. It was like 'happy new year', 'happy friendship day' for a while. Formality had crept in with an indefinite label.

Nothing was wrong, yet nothing seemed right. He smiled at himself for a while. Her candor, her smile all the reminiscences were flowing into the fluted architecture of his thoughts simultaneously. Her most innocuous lies which was made the truth just obvious. Silly jokes and instantaneous comments about what the elsewhere people were doing. Immaturity just belying the immense understanding to promote the bit of hilarity. These had made his life so much comfortable. The very next phase of thoughts made him delve into reality again. Calls went unanswered during this period of brief standstill, messages not received and yet he was one who was undeniable to any extent for he had the inviolable rights.

She was pretty of course. The reminiscence had just created a fleeting glimpse. Almost, three months later lady luck seemed to smile upon Ralphy as he got in touch. He had a penchant of being appealing since birth either in a good way or in a devilish way. At least he thought it was so. There came an undeniable proposition from his own tongue on which he still stares with utter disbelief. As time went by things grew like they were all innate. It had been all there but there was no particular effort of spewing it forth. The proceedings at Red Hot Chilly Peppers was quite interesting. Most of the time was silence with an occasional penetrating glance into each others' eyes. And he had been in the receiving end of drops of water with a fork and was impelled to oblige. Then he had to listen to a very dumb explanation of why she enjoyed this. Actually he was enjoying these proceedings quietly. He had the same green t-shirt by coincidence and he was listening to the plots behind it. It was all smiles which he could manage at this time.

This was a new journey to embark. It could not be defined yet it occupied a flawless mental image. Time in the case was the greatest motivator. And there was some song, slowly coming out from oblivion,"She's got eyes of the bluest skies, as if they thought of rain...."

Beyond the horizons

"So this is where it begins", Ray told himself. He had the clairvoyance that it would impede the flow at a certain juncture. It had become so difficult to abstain from the truth. Still in its impalpable manifestation, it could make some sense for the second time. The first time was when he had around ten years of time during which had undergone certain catastrophic atrophy under inadvertent whims.

Pressure had an adverse effect on him, when thought purely on emotional grounds otherwise he usually did not succumb to. It was God-gifted luck that sometimes gave the impulse to defeat a mounting alteration on his composure. Countless thoughts seem to hover around this predicament. An impasse had to be avoided. It was worthwhile in making the efforts necessary to rise to the occasion without thinking what failure later might make you bereft of.

And it seemed diabolical again, for God most certainly doesn't play dice. But this necessitated a victory as they say, 'sometimes winning is everything'. The devil smiled upon the lesser evil. His thoughts didn't belie reality. Things were placed at an imperative brim to foretell his wish. Wishes may be sometimes unreasonable but he thought otherwise almost instantly. If it was a younger Ray then everything should be perfect and that too perfectly perfect. But with time these implacable whims had drifted away and a ray of common-sense had surged in. If every thought was emotive and the actions following them took complete credence in them, then there was lesser chance of enlightenment. Finally, he had to build faith in his intricate senses and intuition.

Time had progressively inculcated patience in him. He knew some things are perhaps worth a wait. The gory dreams and nightmares had instilled some virtues which had not been perhaps bequeathed to him as a birthright. Aware of the fact that clouds could obscure the moon too soon, he craved for his wishes and started to categorically deliberate on each one of them. To him these wishes were human, but there were still impediments which shouldn't have been there. And these were human too. "May be I am a devil incarnate", he muttered to himself.

He had mustered a definite level of clarity on right and wrong by this time. He had a life to live for and he would heed to only moral reasons, not to equivocating environmental whims. On a personal level, he had wished these things not to exist at the first place, but then he would have been bereft of some greater experiences too. Tranquility was what he was searching for, may be this is what we all humans search it for a lifetimes.

Some unusual moments in life could turn out to be most decisive after all. There was such a compulsive flash and he could perceive the manifestation beyond impervious walls of imagination. The time wasn't quite right this time in a line contradiction to his thoughts. Insuperable circumstances could impel the situation in foreseeable future. There are times in life when one is forced to take steps which one abhors most, but later they turn out to be the perfect blends to make a journey smooth.

Our Benefactors

Looking skywards marveling at the bewitched stars and just fleeting to an ephemeral day-dream, we usually have a sudden gust for realization of our quintessential self. The real benefactors cease existence and the very thought seems to scare our might. There is a sudden rise in abhorrence for the very cause we lack the independence. But independence is an ambiguity in itself. It entails a concerted effort from listless humans to survive. Some come to be known while others remain veiled for a lifetime. It's said we are the only one who are only ones who are the cartographers of our lives. But isn't the very concept worthy of a draconian dispute? There are some things which have a penchant to test our audacity. There's a diabolical causality in the underlying realms.

Usually the expectations and whims that threaten to tranquil the aggressive self. May be it takes time for emotions to settle aplomb and realize that some of the expectations are just fancy. It may pertain to the expectation of parents, may be friends or may be your better-half. It would just look majestic but from their perception. Your interests and your passion are much alien to others with an exception of a few cases. The burning desire to be a dream-weaver doesn't leave much space to relax, it's the atrophy you yourself undergo in a slow pace. Loosing self is the biggest loss if I had a say in it. It takes such a monstrous effort to rediscover yourself in the tiny bottlenecks of time.

It's a welcoming reason when you are asked to set your priorities right. Standing akimbo you can't set them right impromptu. There's a dire need of cognizance of priorities in the first place. Some processes have to run eternal while others are ephemeral. Some need time to decipher and some need to be 'terminated now'. It is you yourself, who is the sole stakeholder here. It is time to stand up and shout it loud to the soul within. There are no benefactors in this world. You can be a beneficiary if the will and whim is there to do something. It is time to wake up and rise and rise high...

Definitive Diversions

Sooothsayers often elucidate with this proverbial danger, " What is already done cannot be undone". The phrase does make these people a behemoth to the believers, but the belief itself is fugitive intrinsically. It slowly fades away like the fleeting clouds to unveil the azure skies. Diversions defy being explicit most of the times. They only occur with formidable force. Some may seek vengeance where others may try to restore the balance. Life in itself is a conundrum and diversions are the entities. Somewhere solved, a few times replaced and most of the time they are in a state of flux.

The flux state is manipulated by audacity, courage and last but not the least wisdom. They bend along where the force overpowers it. Life in itself is a bequest to all of us. The journey makes us experience, analyze and realize. Every fallacy does pertain to permanence. It's the evanescent nature that causes these diversions.

There's a need to redefine some things time to time. Things and thoughts lacking proper classification make little sense else galvanize a problem to much bigger dimensions. Haven't we observed since childhood that the sweet coincidences are brought about when we require them the most. The genesis of the force that manifests our wishes is yet to be known. How many times we make things happen when we need it most!

There is a simple answer to this: we are making certain things happen. May be it's not so generic because there are a lot of abstruse concepts yet to be known in this journey called life.

Fleeting Bliss

bliss. n. a state of extreme happiness

Dreams seem to coexist with the human race since aeon. Their very existence might seem evanescent to this real world. It's true to an extent that these make us set a firm resolve to live but humans are attracted towards fallacies too. The vision is obscured by ambitions most of the times and the frenzied mind makes them appear real. These quintessential patterns are the solemn urge of our wishes and fancies.

The light apparently converges at a distant horizon but its the human perception that is fallacious. It always runs towards infinity. The pain is not receding. The true vision is dominant when there is a realization of self. The friction between the whims and entailment vanishes. Bliss emancipates the individual not on the attainment of dreams but it's the bliss itself. It's in a way proprietary to the being.

The eyes emanate innocence, the lips majestic expression together ensemble to give the  final touch. Desire and greed are two entities with one foraying into avarice and other having a consummate strength if it has an attribute of innocence. Success pertains to the degree of wish, and perhaps the degree of success confers to the madness of the whim. Desires too in their own class are ephemeral pertaining to their intrinsic nature. May be extraneous at some point of time, but they always conjecture to a certain possibility. It might be indulging circumlocution to a certain extent.

The one who realizes the endless possibilities of these dreams and works on his own way gets fruition. Everything doesn't work out as expected. They may exceed expectations!

Entree Galore

Thinking about Montford, Lauren and Randy, ah! well, they better be kept out of this. Funny thing was that Montford was obsessed with Lauren and Lauren was simply self-obsessed. Randy was too happy with his brandy, to think of anything else. Those were the handful of people who could make Ralph less introvert. The rest of the history was left intact along the footnotes of time. Every one should have a tinge of darkness from the past, which made Ralph incapable of thinking otherwise.

Berks did advise Ralph on his four sacrosanct steps which were principally based upon gross physical emotions rather than mental well-being. Ralph knew Berks' diabolical nature to the extreme intensity which Berk's had proved again and again. Now gleaming in his mind, were these thoughts which made him feel to be in a state of elevated sainthood. What he ignored was that he was incapable of accepting the unexpected.

Brief flashes of past flickered in his divergent mind. Thoughts took him to Montford, his good friend seeming proficient in managing his own organization. Ralph still had to attain proficiency in his current assignment and he perhaps eternally waits for a kind, he would love. For Monty, it just required the power and bent of mind to convince one colossus of a person especially when Monty preferred to differ. There was a thing for which Monty decided he would undergo self-customized atrophy, and it was Lauren. Good friends since college days and the relationship still halted to an impasse as the time evolved. As for Lauren, her heart was still like an open highway. Ralph had some concern about this. But he was more interested in redeeming his own life rather than understanding the abstruse complications of the secondary ones. Little did he know that these things accentuate to a point when credence gradually begins its own devastation. Berks a kind of always had a certain ingenious way of expressing thoughtlessness.

Randy had been always a kind of innocent escapist, still having creed on the virginal self- image of being. Just having a blissful time roaming and enjoying parties in the places whose name had become hackneyed enough to even qualify for one. He was in a school of thought which believed in keeping all the candles out, so that all the women remain fair. The hiatus of the Monty-Lauren seemed to a permanent one to Randy. Still he had his own life to deal with.

Ralph did think himself to be a kind of extreme genius at times, when there was no conclusive semaphore restricting it. Most of the time there was one, and to his utter dismay. His thoughts had been put into an spinning web. His confusions, his diversions and finally the premonitions did befuddle him.

Lauren had been in her world of dreams, lacking even a single vague touch with the real world. Always having thought herself to be flawless which had compelled a few affirmations from similar dim wits. She was in the illusion of some concerted effort, she was raising in order to prevent relationships from deteriorating further. These things just floated and made her bloated. Some things get into the head so quick that one never realizes it had to be kept in control.

Ralph admired one person to the acme: Berks. He always annotated his every direct speech to Berks with some obvious slangs. Yet he was like the Rolls-Royce of emotional-excellence. Always suited up to the occasion however frivolous the host may be, invited or not, he always was there. He wasn't always that smart. There was a past to it, a typically brutal past. Brutal on Berks, you got to be kidding. He is the Emperor of all diabolical schemes after all. Let us keep this past to some time else.

The time had come for once and for all to take a final stand. It could just prevent the impertinent convulsions. Monty could not make himself undone with any obsession. As for Randy he continues to live in a certain non-committal manner. And by the fall of pain, Ralph acquiesces with the reality, and seeks out for his own life where he has something to fall back upon. Berks still doesn't bet a penny to this as always. And for the lucky Lauren she remains as always, buffeted around by her life. She perhaps had a golden hand in its creation and its aftermath.

Life on a Fast Lane

'Let's get it started'.. Perhaps this phrase has qualified enough to be termed as a cliche. But, let it be some other time. It's the overwhelming confusion, Ray is facing this time. The typical may be, may be not situation.


Drifting in darkness, may be it was a natural consequence of his unconscious choice which made him think of what needs to be done. Some one had told him earlier, "Listen kid, If you want to win in the future you need to be prepared to lose now." He had made the naive mistake of taking it too literally, when it had de facto a subtle inner message. You need to fight the battle first. If you lose it at first, then awaken your spirits, exorcise the demons within and fight it ab initio. It sometimes necessitates to lose a battle to win a war.


But what is the proverbial war! It is the war within self , the war of an individual in an apparently eternal quest for a segregated identity to be known as 'Ray'. To be proclaimed in life for the very reason he exists for. Does it have a role to play with the manifestation of this singular life or it is eternity he is thinking about. Never having given even a speck of thought on what he really wants to do, at twenty-something he decides to take up this matter. Didn't he give a thought to it when it mattered less or was he engulfed by this life to such an extent that he didn't really look into it as a matter of concern. Better be late than never, he says to himself. All he finds is blinding darkness within. Can it be enlightened by the flames upon which he has utter faith.


Flames! Yeah, flames. Those guiding angels which show the path when we are lost, those which make us happy at times of sheer despair and which incessantly burn within us to give us our purpose sooner or later. Ah! the mind of a man can just dart off to the subject least apropos at that time. "Oh Ray! why do you ever discount relationships as a tool to kill boredom", he quietly introspects himself. Introverted, intuitive, thinking and perceiving was he as termed by others. Some thoughts just came in and out of his mind akin to clouds which make the cuddled sky. Immature was the term used for him by his closest friends. But, sometimes irrationally held truths are more harmful than reasoned errors.


Relationships may be the greatest strength at some point in the time-line unless they are shattered when they prove to be the greatest weakness. These memories come as a bane to the exigency of the situation. Thoughts needed to be diverted to a single route without blood streaming into the veins and its subordinates. Let's now try eliminating the impossible so that whatever remains may point to the truth. It might be pointless at times, but for that very cause, we are still humans. Looking askance to the mirror on the right, he made a investigating look at the distant flustered image, which wavered with the flames.


So back to flames and their subtle vibrations, singing and ringing into the ears about matter unheard for a long long time. Flames, yes it is the very self which burns inside the conscious and the unconscious reminding us of our existence as a whole. But only when you make allegiance to them, they help you discover. Else, these sounds quickly go unheard in the vast depths of time. It is the credence in self which is at stake and it's not akin to some self-obsessed theory which emerges when self-esteem is on the run.


Ray has to live his dreams but has he got any? Oh yes, they have always been sky high. It was time to ponder upon these dreams with the an intensity which might invigorate the very purpose of this life. And the quintessential requirement is to do a logical deduction on each of the stairways to them. He took his stand, the purpose could only be defeated by reason. Is it such that everything in life is logical or has logical explanations? No, perhaps they are understood as humane.


His thoughts made him think of the eternally diabolical paradox. It always made his mind to ponder whether the thought process always foreshadows some baleful instance or not. Clairvoyance for despair made a comical sense that time.Thoughts and countless thoughts streaming through the fluted architecture of the mind had been clouding his judgement. But this time, clarity was back, his mind was more focussed and a seeming vexation was receding away in the form of gentle waves.


Time had steadily evolved to enforce a definitive decision. It was Ray's and it was only for himself. It was time to seek vengeance for the lost. The elusive suddenly became the most obvious. Like still water, clarity fought back with an audacious elegance. The voice of the flames appeared nascent and forthright, acclaiming all his virtues from within. Those which never condemn for the so called blasphemy. They heed to only higher moral reason.


Ray had already made his decision. "It is time", he quietly said to himself. Self-esteem slowly crawled up to his craving and with his credence restored, it seemed to be another belle epoch. This was his last-stand with an unshakable resolve. The radiant sun had finally dazzled.